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• W754513360 abstract "BACKGROUND: Disease course in multiple sclerosis (MS) is highly variable. A tool for predicting risk of ‘aggressive MS’ would be valuable for therapeutic decision making.OBJECTIVE: To develop and internally validate a logistic regression model that uses patient’s gender, age and baseline Patient-derived MS Severity Score (P-MSSS) as predictor variables to estimate probability of aggressive MS 2 years later. P-MSSS is an easily-obtainable rank-score of relative disease severity (Kister et al., Neurology 2013;80:1018). ‘Aggressive disease’ was defined as 9worse disability than in 5/6 MS patients with same disease duration’ (P-MSSS>0.83).METHODS: The model was developed using longitudinal data from the North American Research Consortium on Multiple Sclerosis (NARCOMS) Registry. Inclusion criteria were diagnosis of MS; age 蠅19 years; completed disability self-assessment at enrollment and at 2- and 5-year follow-ups. Item response theory was used for model estimation, and to assess calibration and discrimination.RESULTS: 2,364 NARCOMS registrants fulfilled our inclusion criteria; median age was 47.1 ±10.1 years and 79.8[percnt] were women. Final model accounted for >50[percnt] of outcome variability (Nagelkerke’s R-square, 0.529). Calibration and discrimination were excellent (calibration line: slope, 0.992; intercept, -0.008; c-statistic, 0.925). At the probability cutoff value of 0.296, the model predicted aggressive MS 2 years later with 68.7[percnt] sensitivity and 93.7[percnt] specificity.CONCLUSION: We present a novel, easy-to-use tool that estimates probability of aggressive MS at 2-year follow-up- gender, age, and patient-derived MS Severity Score. We are currently analyzing the utility of the model for predicting aggressive MS at 5-year follow-up. The prediction tool will be converted into a freely available app that could be used in the clinic to guide therapeutic decision. Disclosure: Dr. Kister has nothing to disclose. Dr. Cutter has received personal compensation for activities with Apotek, Ascendis Pharma, Biogen Idec, Cleveland Clinic, and GlaxoSmithKlein. Dr. Salter has received personal compensation for activities with GlaxoSmithKline as a consultant. Dr. Herbert has received personal compensation for activities with Biogen Idec, Teva, EDM Serono, and Bayer Pharmaceuticals as a consultant. Dr. Chamot has nothing to disclose." @default.
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• W754513360 date "2015-04-06" @default.
• W754513360 modified "2023-09-27" @default.
• W754513360 title "Novel, easy-to-use prediction tool accurately estimates probability of aggressive MS at 2-year follow up (P3.214)" @default.
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