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• W76862104 abstract "By David Kilcullen London: C. Hurst & Company Publishers, 2013 288 pages $27.95 [ILLUSTRATION OMITTED] David Kilcullen, author of The Accidental Guerrilla: Fighting Small Wars in the Midst of a Big One and Counterinsurgency, delivers another essential work in Out of the Mountains: The Coming Age of the Urban Guerrilla. Kilcullen is no stranger to the study of insurgency and counterinsurgency. He is a former soldier and diplomat. He also served as a senior advisor to both General David H. Petraeus and Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice during the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan. Out of the Mountains offers a way of looking at the nature of future conflicts given four powerful tectonic forces impacting the world of the twenty-first century: population, urbanization, coastal settlement, and connectedness. Kilcullen's thesis is that the cities of the future--mostly coastal, highly urbanized, and heavily populated--will be the central focus of tomorrow's conflicts, which will be heavily impacted by the four megatrends of population growth, urbanization, littoralization, and connectedness. He asserts that people than ever before in history will be competing for scarcer and scarcer resources in poorly governed that lack adequate infrastructure, and these will be more and more closely connected to the global system, so that local will have far wider affects (50). Within this heavily populated, highly urbanized, littoralized, and connected world, adversaries are likely to be nonstate armed groups (whether criminal or military) or to adopt asymmetric methods, and even the most conventional hypothetical war scenarios turn out, when closely examined, to involve very significant irregular aspects (107). Kilcullen defines nonstate armed groups as any group that includes armed individuals who apply violence but who aren't members of the regular forces of a nation-state (126). Under this broader definition of nonstate armed groups, Kilcullen includes street gangs, communitarian or sectarian militias, insurgents, bandits, pirates, armed smugglers or drug traffickers, violent organized criminal organizations, warlord armies, and certain paramilitary forces. The term encompasses both combatants and individuals who don't personally carry arms or use violence but who belong to groups that do (126), Those nontraditional nonstate armed groups not only undermine the authority and legitimacy of the state but also corrupt the social fabric of society. The new warrior class or conflict entrepreneurs are those individuals in society part of the bottom billion who have lost all hopes of a better future, social advancement, and have resorted to the use of force to partake in the spoils of society. In Kilcullen's analysis, as the world is greatly impacted by the four megatrends, some cities in the Third World will become a breeding ground for conflict. Those cities will become no-go areas, where government presence and authority are extremely limited. Those so-called no-go areas of a megacity in the Third World which have become safe havens for criminal networks or nonstate armed groups, creating a vacuum that is filled by local youth who have no shortage of grievances, whether arising from their urban circumstances or imported from their home villages (40). Kilcullen explains, rapid urban growth in coastal, underdeveloped is overloading economic, social, and governance systems, straining city infrastructure, and overburdening the carrying capacity of cities designed for much smaller populations ... the implications for future are profound with more people competing for scarcer resources in crowded, underserviced, and undergoverned urban areas (35-36). Those so-called no-go areas are the feral city of the twenty-first century. The concept, derived from the field of biology, was first introduced to the political science literature by Richard J. …" @default.
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• W76862104 date "2014-03-22" @default.
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• W76862104 title "Out of the Mountains: The Coming Age of the Urban Guerrilla" @default.
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