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- W781061196 abstract "This paper examines economic aspects of weather forecasts for aviation known as Ter minal Aerodrome Forecasts (TAFs). TAFs are predictions of weather conditions within an eight-kilometre radius of an aerodrome; they are issued every six hours, have a twen ty-four hour validity, and are produced for all major airports in the world (BoM, 1981). In Australia, TAFs are produced by the Bureau of Meteorology (BoM), an agency of the Australian Federal Government. Although TAFs have many safety-related and opera tional roles, their use during flight planning is the focus of this paper. Many airlines rely on TAFs during flight planning; for example to determine the carrying of additional (al ternate) fuel for diversion to an alternative airport if weather conditions around the in tended destination are adverse. Inaccurate TAF information may cause unnecessary diversions or mean that additional fuel is carried unnecessarily. Aviation is both weather and weather information sensitive (Marks, 1980). Informa tion has economic value only if it affects human decision making; TAF information af fects decisions. The objective of this paper is to assess the economic benefits and costs of TAFs. The analysis involves the estimation of: (1) the direct benefits of improved TAF accuracy; (2) the direct value of TAFs at a particular accuracy level and over a specified time period; (3) the net social benefits of the TAFs; and (4) the optimal level of TAF accuracy. Twenty-two years of historical TAF verification data, and real airline cost data, are analysed within the decision making framework formulated below. The results presented are based on the international operations of Qantas Airways Limited into Sydney Airport. The direct benefits and costs are defined in terms of the role of TAFs in determining aircraft fuel load for airlines employing a discretionary alternate fuel policy.1" @default.
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- W781061196 date "1998-08-01" @default.
- W781061196 modified "2023-09-28" @default.
- W781061196 title "An Economic Analysis of Terminal Aerodrome Forecasts with Special Reference to Sydney Airport" @default.
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