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- W781185114 abstract "I quantify the risk-return relationship in the foreign-exchange (FX) market across different countries and investment horizons by focusing on the role of multiple sources of consumption risk. I estimate a flexible structural model of the joint dynamics of US aggregate consumption, inflation, nominal yield, and stochastic variance with cross-equation restrictions implied by recursive preferences. I identify four sources of consumption risk: short-run, long-run, inflation, and variance shocks. The long-run consumption risk plays a prominent role in the FX market: it contributes to the spread in returns between high and low interest rate currencies across multiple investment horizons from one to five quarters. The short-run consumption risk affects currencies only at the quarterly horizon, where it explains 40% of the spread. The difference in returns between high and low yield currencies disappears for horizons longer than four quarters." @default.
- W781185114 created "2016-06-24" @default.
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- W781185114 date "2014-01-01" @default.
- W781185114 modified "2023-09-23" @default.
- W781185114 title "Term-Structure of Consumption Risk Premia in the Cross-Section of Currency Returns" @default.
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- W781185114 doi "https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2497177" @default.
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