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• W788321453 abstract "A comprehensive expert-judgment elicitation methodology to quantify input parameter uncertainty and analysis tool uncertainty in a conceptual launch vehicle design analysis has been developed. The ten-phase methodology seeks to obtain expert judgment opinion for quantifying uncertainties as a probability distribution so that multidisciplinary risk analysis studies can be performed. The calibration and aggregation techniques presented as part of the methodology are aimed at improving individual expert estimates, and provide an approach to aggregate multiple expert judgments into a single probability distribution. The purpose of this report is to document the methodology development and its validation through application to a reference aerospace vehicle. A detailed summary of the application exercise, including calibration and aggregation results is presented. A discussion of possible future steps in this research area is given." @default.
• W788321453 created "2016-06-24" @default.
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• W788321453 date "2004-01-01" @default.
• W788321453 modified "2023-09-26" @default.
• W788321453 title "Development of an Expert Judgement Elicitation and Calibration Methodology for Risk Analysis in Conceptual Vehicle Design" @default.
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• W788321453 hasPublicationYear "2004" @default.
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