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• W7920146 abstract "Lake Waikaremoana is a high-altitude, large-volume lake located within the rugged terrain of the Urewera National Park. At the lake outflow a rapid elevation change of nearly 450 metres in 8 kilometres facilitates the lake’s use as the upper intake portal for the Waikaremoana Hydro Power Scheme. At the time of this study, Genesis Energy operated the Waikaremoana Power Scheme in response to a water availability model based on daily lake level differencing from which daily generation capacity is predicted, allowing strategic bidding into the electricity market. However, when river flows are low this model is subject to error, as small changes in lake level sometimes cannot be determined accurately beyond background noise on daily timescales.This project develops a method of estimating both current day and day-ahead water availability of Lake Waikaremoana, independent of lake levels using simple hydrological models, thereby improving operational efficiency of the Waikaremoana Power Scheme. The forecasting is developed specifically for the lower inflow conditions when the lake level differencing approach is most error prone.It has long been recognised that a significant volume of Lake Waikaremoana water leaks through the ancient landslide dam which created the lake. Previous to this study, it was considered that an inaccurate estimation of this leakage rate combined with evaporative losses might contribute to the error within the existing water availability model. A modified catchment water balance and simple regression approach was applied to Lake Waikaremoana to estimate the lake water loss not accounted for by recorded outflows. Estimating this unrecorded loss translates to estimating the intercept of a linear regression relation, where the assumption is made that there is a linear relationship between the discharge of the Aniwaniwa Stream and the net lake water balance (excluding known outflows) under low inflow conditions. On the basis of the confidence intervals about the intercept, the balance term (constant background lake inflow minus leakage and evaporative loss) is estimated to within the range of 2.89 and -1.17 m³s-¹ suggesting that the unknown portion of leakage and evaporative losses are not significant contributors to model error. A useful consequence of the regression was that regression coefficients could be used as a means of upscaling to give net lake storage change for low-flow conditions. This enabled day-ahead water availability forecasts to be acquired from Aniwaniwa Stream discharge day-ahead forecasts.Two forecasting methodologies are developed to forecast the Aniwaniwa Stream discharge: a finite mixture rainfall-runoff model, and a multiple linear regression method. The rainfall-runoff model is formulated initially as a many-parameter model which is then subjected to a lasso-based model simplification concurrent with model calibration. The simplified model forecasts next-day inflows by using a weighted linear combination of hydrograph forms which best match the previous observed…" @default.
• W7920146 created "2016-06-24" @default.
• W7920146 creator A5067545710 @default.
• W7920146 date "2011-01-01" @default.
• W7920146 modified "2023-09-27" @default.
• W7920146 title "Forecasting Lake Waikaremoana Water Availability for Hydro Power" @default.
• W7920146 hasPublicationYear "2011" @default.
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