FRINK Linked Data Fragments server

Matches in SemOpenAlex for { <https://semopenalex.org/work/W79609568> ?p ?o ?g. }

• W79609568 abstract "We have developed a methodology for using GDSS to analyze the business risk of political events, to construct and analyze scenarios, and to perform cross-impact analysis, all in politically restrictive environments where specialists must be consulted but anonymity is essential. We briefly describe our approach and then report its implementation in the context of the business future of Hong Kong. Political Risk and Scenarios Multinational managers wishing to make investments or other commitments (e.g., establishing a regional headquarters) in politically risky environments often perform analyses and construct scenarios in an attempt to understand the risk. Specifically, they engage in such tasks as: Political Event Analysis, which attempts to determine the business risk of political events, such as expropriation, currency controls, and targeted taxation (Brewer 1993), Scenario Development and Analysis, in which several possible futures are constructed and evaluated (Schwartz 1991), and Cross-Impact Analysis, in which interdependencies among political events are estimated, often in the form of conditional probabilities (Stover and Gordon 1978). In order to perform these tasks it is usually necessary to consult with specialists knowledgeable about the country and region in question. In addition, it is often desirable to allow the specialists to discuss sensitive issues among themselves. However, they may be reluctant to discuss some of these issues openly. Group Decision Support Systems (GDSS) have been used to facilitate anonymous discussions in other strategic contexts (Dennis et al. 1997), and we have used GDSS in the context of political risk and scenario analysis. Our approach is summarized in Table 1 and is illustrated below. An Application to Hong Kong On July 1, 1997 the British Dependent Territory of Hong Kong, one of the most aggressive free-market economies in the world, became a Special Administrative Region of the People’s Republic of China, one of the few remaining communist nations in the world. This has given rise to substantial uncertainty concerning Hong Kong’s future (Chan 1997). To analyze this uncertainty, we applied our methodology using GroupSystems by Ventana Corporation, which contains discussion tools for anonymous discussion and voting tools for entering data. Each of the following four tasks was accomplished in separate one-hour sessions with different groups of twenty Hong Kong business executives, each having five to ten years of experience in a multinational firm. In Political Event Analysis (Blanning and Reinig 1997a), we presented the executives with a list of five events -for example, that the independence of Hong Kong judges and courts might decrease during the next five years. They used a discussion tool to discuss the likelihood of the event and its importance to multinational firms, and we summarized their comments into Viewpoints, four of them concerning likelihood and four of them concerning importance. They then used a voting tool to estimate likelihood and importance on a scale from one to ten. The most likely but least important event was censorship of political commentary, and the event of greatest concern was the declining use of English in Hong Kong. In Scenario Development (Blanning and Reinig 1997b) we asked the executives to discuss events that might affect Hong Kong businesses. We monitored their discussion and used it to prepare a list of fifty events -for example, that China becomes politically unstable. We asked them to vote on the probability of each event and on the degree to which the event would be favorable or unfavorable for Hong Kong business. We then prepared three scenarios: optimistic (high probability, highly favorable events), pessimistic (high probability, highly unfavorable events), and realistic (very high probability events). There were between ten and fifteen events in each scenario, with little overlap. In Scenario Analysis (Blanning and Reinig 1997c), we presented the executives with brief descriptions of Hong Kong in ten years as a leading city in China, as a major city, and as a minor city, each in comparison with Shanghai and Guangzhou (Canton). We asked them to discuss the likelihood that each of these scenarios would occur, and we summarized their" @default.
• W79609568 created "2016-06-24" @default.
• W79609568 creator A5057727976 @default.
• W79609568 creator A5074808860 @default.
• W79609568 date "1998-01-01" @default.
• W79609568 modified "2023-09-25" @default.
• W79609568 title "Political Event and Scenario Analysis Using GDSS: An Application to the Business Future of Hong Kong" @default.
• W79609568 cites W127773777 @default.
• W79609568 cites W1492529765 @default.
• W79609568 cites W1579197493 @default.
• W79609568 cites W2021168260 @default.
• W79609568 hasPublicationYear "1998" @default.
• W79609568 type Work @default.
• W79609568 sameAs 79609568 @default.
• W79609568 citedByCount "0" @default.
• W79609568 crossrefType "journal-article" @default.
• W79609568 hasAuthorship W79609568A5057727976 @default.
• W79609568 hasAuthorship W79609568A5074808860 @default.
• W79609568 hasConcept C10138342 @default.
• W79609568 hasConcept C106306483 @default.
• W79609568 hasConcept C107327155 @default.
• W79609568 hasConcept C112930515 @default.
• W79609568 hasConcept C144133560 @default.
• W79609568 hasConcept C151730666 @default.
• W79609568 hasConcept C154945302 @default.
• W79609568 hasConcept C17744445 @default.
• W79609568 hasConcept C182306322 @default.
• W79609568 hasConcept C185874996 @default.
• W79609568 hasConcept C18785705 @default.
• W79609568 hasConcept C199360897 @default.
• W79609568 hasConcept C199539241 @default.
• W79609568 hasConcept C2779343474 @default.
• W79609568 hasConcept C2780801425 @default.
• W79609568 hasConcept C32896092 @default.
• W79609568 hasConcept C41008148 @default.
• W79609568 hasConcept C63143784 @default.
• W79609568 hasConcept C86803240 @default.
• W79609568 hasConcept C94625758 @default.
• W79609568 hasConceptScore W79609568C10138342 @default.
• W79609568 hasConceptScore W79609568C106306483 @default.
• W79609568 hasConceptScore W79609568C107327155 @default.
• W79609568 hasConceptScore W79609568C112930515 @default.
• W79609568 hasConceptScore W79609568C144133560 @default.
• W79609568 hasConceptScore W79609568C151730666 @default.
• W79609568 hasConceptScore W79609568C154945302 @default.
• W79609568 hasConceptScore W79609568C17744445 @default.
• W79609568 hasConceptScore W79609568C182306322 @default.
• W79609568 hasConceptScore W79609568C185874996 @default.
• W79609568 hasConceptScore W79609568C18785705 @default.
• W79609568 hasConceptScore W79609568C199360897 @default.
• W79609568 hasConceptScore W79609568C199539241 @default.
• W79609568 hasConceptScore W79609568C2779343474 @default.
• W79609568 hasConceptScore W79609568C2780801425 @default.
• W79609568 hasConceptScore W79609568C32896092 @default.
• W79609568 hasConceptScore W79609568C41008148 @default.
• W79609568 hasConceptScore W79609568C63143784 @default.
• W79609568 hasConceptScore W79609568C86803240 @default.
• W79609568 hasConceptScore W79609568C94625758 @default.
• W79609568 hasLocation W796095681 @default.
• W79609568 hasOpenAccess W79609568 @default.
• W79609568 hasPrimaryLocation W796095681 @default.
• W79609568 hasRelatedWork W1517584142 @default.
• W79609568 hasRelatedWork W1565553810 @default.
• W79609568 hasRelatedWork W178038938 @default.
• W79609568 hasRelatedWork W1972119984 @default.
• W79609568 hasRelatedWork W1986907881 @default.
• W79609568 hasRelatedWork W2020633238 @default.
• W79609568 hasRelatedWork W2081482268 @default.
• W79609568 hasRelatedWork W210804031 @default.
• W79609568 hasRelatedWork W2122764606 @default.
• W79609568 hasRelatedWork W2135616854 @default.
• W79609568 hasRelatedWork W2258603123 @default.
• W79609568 hasRelatedWork W2333802876 @default.
• W79609568 hasRelatedWork W2776266349 @default.
• W79609568 hasRelatedWork W2946687819 @default.
• W79609568 hasRelatedWork W2954238238 @default.
• W79609568 hasRelatedWork W2968044897 @default.
• W79609568 hasRelatedWork W2969601588 @default.
• W79609568 hasRelatedWork W3096407461 @default.
• W79609568 hasRelatedWork W204737607 @default.
• W79609568 hasRelatedWork W2394490981 @default.
• W79609568 isParatext "false" @default.
• W79609568 isRetracted "false" @default.
• W79609568 magId "79609568" @default.
• W79609568 workType "article" @default.