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• W799369570 abstract "The September 10, 2001 edition of Time magazine dedicated its cover story to Colin Powell and his megastar wattage ... curiously dimmed inside of the Bush administration. Of course, no one knew that at that precise moment all the human and technological components for the worst attack ever committed on United States soil were already in place, and imminent danger existed. Discussing General Powell's role inside the White House was a good cover story for September 10th .Then came the attacks of September 11, 2001 - 9/11.The catastrophic event occurred without warning. The attacks seemed like a random and unpredictable occurrence; a black hole in our cognition.But obviously, 9/11 was a complicated event that required the use of many previous steps, many technologies in concert, and many brains working together to achieve that particular end. What we saw that day was only one more step (not even the culmination) of a very long series of converging processes - a deviant result of the innovation process that also fuels progress inside our technologically dependent civilization.On September 12, 2001 a still perplexed world asked how was it possible that the terrorists' attacks were not stopped; all the clues were there, the were waiting to be connected and al Qaeda had already been active and recognized as a threat by the federal government since the 1990s.On September 14, 2001 Time had a new cover. It featured a collapsing World Trade Center - an avalanche of dust, steel and glass.But if 9/11 was just the visible part of a longer process, were did it all start?The historic account of the 9/11 Commission Report finds the roots of 9/11 in the rise of a national resistance against the communist government of Afghanistan in 1978, which would eventually lead to the formation of al Qaeda1 .I argue that the patterns that lead to 9/11 are much older, but at the same time they are considerably less linear. Therefore, that direct line that the 9/11 Commission Report traced is nothing more than an illusion produced by what Nassim Taleb calls the retrospective distortion, how we can assess matters only after the fact, as if they were in a rearview mirror (history seems clearer and more organized [linear] in history books than in empirical reality).2This retrospective distortion creates a security ecosystem where homeland security practitioners feel pressured to try to connect the dots every time, instead of adapting to an environment of emerging patterns and mutating that cannot be connected.Moreover, certain technologies have been doubling in capacity every few months for many years now and, as a consequence, technology improvement cycles have also shrunk. We have grown used to having a new and improved version of a product that is twice as powerful in just a few months, and radical disruptive propositions every year or two. Because of technological convergence, it is very hard to predict what unintended consequences all those improvements and new technologies will have once they are recombined with others, and what catastrophic possibilities convergence might have that we will miss on the next 9/10. This is the chaotic security environment where homeland security operates today. For the next ten years, homeland security should embrace it.9/11/1973: Why Not?Romance languages, as well as German, have introduced the neologism of uchronia (from uchronie in French) in their vocabularies to define the subgenre in fiction where reality as we know it is profoundly altered by a change in the chain of events. They describe a time that does not exist, or a non-time. In an uchronic novel, reality it is indistinguishable to ours until an event - often called a point of divergence or a Jonbar Hinge - triggers a series of second and third level consequences that end up creating a reality that it is almost unrecognizable from ours, even though initial conditions were identical. …" @default.
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• W799369570 date "2011-05-01" @default.
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• W799369570 title "Preventing the Next 9/10: The Homeland Security Challenges of Technological Evolution and Convergence in the Next Ten Years" @default.
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