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- W830498306 abstract "Stocks, indexes, commodities, and precious metals price prediction is a difficult task where many approaches are used: traditional technical analysis, econometric time series or modern data mining techniques. One particular data mining technique - linear classifier is described in this article. Prediction based on linear classifier is done using current market state, which can be described by various data sets (attributes, features). The simplest form of this model could use data from yesterday's price movement. Advanced models are using more historical price movements. Very advanced models include various historical price movements for indexes from other countries and other instruments like currencies, com- modities, etc. Using more features requires extended time to estimate model parameters. We build the linear classifier models by the minimisation of a convex and piecewise-linear func- tion which is very efficient comparing to other functions. Computational costs for building the model are similar to linear programming. We also use feature selection method called RLS. Those techniques allow us to explore data with many features. Four scenarios are con- sidered, in each scenario a different amount of market data is used to create a model. In the simplest scenario only one day's change in price is taken, in the most complicated one 421 historical prices of 43 different instruments are taken. Best results were achieved by using middle range of 52 attributes. In this scenario, the model was right 53.19% times. Meaning the directions of daily change in S&P500 index (up or down) were predicted correctly. This doesn't seem a lot, but if those predictions would have been used for investing, they could produce a total profit of 77% in the tested time period from November 2008 to March 2011 (2 years 4 months), or an average of 28% per year." @default.
- W830498306 created "2016-06-24" @default.
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- W830498306 date "2011-01-01" @default.
- W830498306 modified "2023-09-24" @default.
- W830498306 title "FORECASTING STOCK INDEX MOVEMENT DIRECTION WITH CPL LINEAR CLASSIFIER" @default.
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