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- W848364061 abstract "In 1994, Saskatchewan Highways and Transportation (SHT) became involved in evaluating subgrade performance (Subgrade Study). The Canadian Strategic Highway Research Program (C-SHRP), which operated within the Transportation Association of Canada (TAC), was also promoting their newly developed Bayesian Software by sponsoring Joint C-SHRP/Agency Applications, whereby technical assistance was provided to the provincial highway agencies towards the development of Bayesian performance models. Saskatchewan's Bayesian project, Subgrade Shear Failure, was accepted by C-SHRP and would incorporate data collected in the Subgrade Study. The main objective was to learn the Bayesian methodology and to develop a model incorporating field data and expert judgement. Field data was collected from two gravel haul roads in 1994 and the expert data was obtained from department and external experts in the spring of 1995. The purpose of the subgrade model is to estimate road surface deflections, initially based on five variables: Crust Thickness, Crust Strength, Subgrade Material Strength, Total Loading and Repetitive Loading. The Repetitive Loading variable was ultimately dropped, due to a lack of field data. The following model equation was derived, as a result of minimal available field data and the input of 10 experts: Deflection (mm) = 7.23 - 0.02 (Crust Thickness (mm)) - 0.02 (Crust Strength (CBR)) - 0.09 (Subgrade Material Strength (CBR)) + 0.01 (Total Loading (tonnes)). The first generation model has a large degree of variance, in part due to the limited field data available. It should be 'fine tuned' with additional field data, as it becomes available. SHT's Bayesian Project was a success in confirming the Bayesian methodology is a valuable tool. This method provides a structured process to obtain first generation models, by combining expert judgement with limited data. (A)" @default.
- W848364061 created "2016-06-24" @default.
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- W848364061 date "1995-10-01" @default.
- W848364061 modified "2023-09-26" @default.
- W848364061 title "SUBGRADE SHEAR FAILURES: JOINT C-SHRP/SASKATCHEWAN BAYESIAN APPLICATION" @default.
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