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• W871997929 abstract "This paper presents econometric estimates for the Brazilian aggregate imports over the period 1996–2010. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first paper that uses the Brazilian quarterly national accounts with this goal in mind. Besides estimating a demand equation (canonical model), as it is usual in the literature, we also explore the co-movements among total imports, gross fixed capital formation and household consumption (alternative model). The results underscore the role played by domestic income, which is the main determinant of total imports. The limited domestic supply of capital goods makes the allocation of domestic income also relevant to the imports dynamics. It should be noted, however, that this specification needs a better theoretical grounding. Evidence of nonlinearities has been found by different estimation techniques. Unfortunately its precise characterization turns out to be difficult due to the diversity of the results obtained. The out-of-sample assessment (one-step-ahead forecast) shows a good performance of the long-run vectors of the alternative models in predicting aggregate imports, meanwhile the best performance is obtained by the error correction representations of the canonical model. We believe those differences emerge from the different speeds of adjustment toward the long-run solutions. O presente artigo apresenta estimativas econométricas das importações agregadas brasileiras. A primeira inovação reside na utilização dos dados de importações das contas nacionais trimestrais. A segunda contribuição se refere aos modelos empíricos, pois, além da equação de demanda (modelo canônico), exploramos o comovimento das importações com a formação bruta de capital fixo, além do consumo das famílias (alternativo). Em terceiro lugar, a instabilidade dos parâmetros foi examinada por diferentes técnicas. Em relação aos resultados, vale destacar o papel da renda interna, que é o principal determinante das importações. A limitada oferta doméstica de bens de capital faz com que a alocação da renda interna seja relevante, cabendo notar que essa especificação necessita de uma fundamentação teórica melhor. Embora tenham sido encontradas evidências de não linearidades, a diversidade de resultados torna difícil sua caracterização exata. Na avaliação fora da amostra (previsões um passo à frente), os vetores de longo prazo apresentaram bom desempenho para o modelo alternativo, enquanto as representações de correção de erros do modelo canônico obtiveram os melhores resultados, estando essa diferença possivelmente relacionada às distintas velocidades de ajustamento na direção da solução de longo prazo." @default.
• W871997929 created "2016-06-24" @default.
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• W871997929 date "2015-05-01" @default.
• W871997929 modified "2023-09-24" @default.
• W871997929 title "Empirical estimates for the Brazilian total imports equation using quarterly national accounts data (1996–2010)" @default.
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• W871997929 doi "https://doi.org/10.1016/j.econ.2015.06.001" @default.
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