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- W87496789 abstract "The author discusses some of the ramifications arising from man's inability to forecast the future with any degree of certainty, especially to the year 2000. A range of forecasts of the U.S. electric energy requirements for the 1980 made during the 1950s and 1960s is shown. Also indicated are forecasts made in 1975 and 1976 and these forecasts shown that the closer we are to a projection date, the forecast range narrows. Forecasts for the year 2000 for electric energy requirements for the U.S. show foecasts made in 1960 and 1970 differing. These forecasts vary from a high of more than 12,000 billion kWh to a low of about 3,500 billion kWh, a ratio of about 3.5 to 1. With today's electric energy requirements in the order of 2,200 billion kWh, a year 2000 requirement of merely 3,500 billion kWh would require only moderate additions to what we already have in place today. On the other hand, if the requirements of 10,000 or 12,000 billion kWh were to materialize in the year 2000, most utility people contend such requirements just could not be met. The author discusses three thought frameworks to deal with the uncertainties involved in forecasting, the conceptualmore » framework requires that we know only the past; the interactive framework allows that there are events we can control and others we cannot; and the physical framework calls for the realization that the future must unfold within the physical constraints of geography, resources, facilities in place, and technological opportunities. (MCW)« less" @default.
- W87496789 created "2016-06-24" @default.
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- W87496789 date "1978-12-07" @default.
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- W87496789 title "How to plan for the year 2000" @default.
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