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• W8796516 abstract "Extreme weather events from severe convective storms (straight-line winds and tornadoes, hail, heavy precipitation and lightning strikes) pose a threat to life and safety of European citizens and lead to significant property damage each year. For Germany, the Munich Reinsurance Group estimates a total damage of 1 to 2 billion EUR per year. For Europe as a whole, thunderstorms are likely to cause 5 to 8 billion EUR annual total damage. A field of particular concern, and also at the cutting edge of science, is the estimation of regionalised severe convective storm risk in a changing climate with time horizon 2030. To consider the impact of climate change on severe thunderstorms, it is necessary to assess atmospheric conditions and derived convectionindices. Therefore, an algorithm was developed for calculating reversible CAPE and vertical wind shear on the basis of 3-dimensional meteorological fields. This is in line with recent investigations by Brooks et al. (2003) and Trapp et al. (2007) for the United States but extends them to Convective Inhibition (CIN, see also Colby, 1984). This study is focussed on Central Europe. The analysis of environmental conditions associated with different kinds of weather events by using soundings is limited by spatial and temporal distribution. The development of reanalysis datasets and future scenarios with homogenous temporal and grid spacing enables the investigation of long-term studies by computing synthetic soundings. The current atmospheric state (1958-2001) is evaluated by analysing ERA-40 reanalysis data at full vertical model level resolution. Future trends are to be derived from simulations of the regional climate model CLM. Verification of the method is attained by comparing the results with sounding-derived parameters and severe storm reports from the European Severe Weather Database (ESWD). Our study will eventually provide an assessment of the thunderstorm probability for the current atmospheric situation and how this state is going to change due to a climate change scenario. First, some case studies are investigated to determine if severe convection may be diagnosed in reanalysis data with horizontal resolution of more than 100 km. After that, there is a closer look at convection over the last few decades and if changes in quantity or intensity of thunderstorms can already be detected. The main" @default.
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• W8796516 date "2008-10-27" @default.
• W8796516 modified "2023-09-26" @default.
• W8796516 title "First results of climate change impacts on severe convective storms in Europe" @default.
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