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• W89302586 abstract "Yogi Berra, that great American man of letters, once remarked that it's tough to make predictions, especially about the future. Yet this is precisely what rural leaders must do and do well to ensure that rural economies keep pace with the nation's economic growth. Rural economies have traditionally been based on natural resources or low-cost labor. As the United States and the world's other industrial nations move more toward services, particularly knowledge-based industries, and away from heavy industry and its reliance on cheap raw materials and cheap labor, rural economies that have relied on their ability to provide these two main economic ingredients will suffer and decline. Knowing where the economy is not going is not the same as knowing where it is going. But while rural areas may not be able to accurately predict what industries might benefit them the most, it is clear that their economic future depends in large part on their ability to take advantage of the telecommunications network. Consequently, rural leaders must decide how the Internet, wireless telecommunications, e-commerce, electronic banking, online shopping, and other components of the information economy will benefit their citizens and, more to the point, how best to respond to these emerging technologies. Predicting the future, that is to say guessing which specific technologies will succeed, and more important which will be critical to economic growth, is fraught with difficulty. dust bin of history overflows with failed, even funny, attempts to predict what life would be like 10 to 20 years down the road. The World of Tomorrow was the theme for the 1939 World's Fair in New York City. There, the Futurama exhibit sponsored by General Motors attempted to show what American life would be like in 1960. A look back at photos from that World's Fair would surely bring a grimace from just about anyone who came of age in the 1960s. Exhibitors confidently predicted that by 1960 we would be traveling in cars that steered themselves automatically at high speed down seamless ribbons of concrete or, more fancifully, commuting to work in personal aircraft a la the Jetsons. Of course, none of these predictions came true by 1960, and many haven't happened to this day. Life in the real 1960s turned out to be very different from the 1939 depictions. And in addition to making the wrong predictions, the exhibit designers also failed to foresee many inventions that would become very important by 1960, such as the transistor and the atom bomb.(1) At the Cotton Carnival in Memphis, Tennessee, in the real 1960s, a typical American family lived for two weeks in a fallout shelter - a situation not foreseen in 1939. Displayed behind two-way mirrors, the family of four ate freeze-dried food and kept up with Conelrad broadcasts on a transistor radio. But even here the predictions were wrong. Thankfully, we didn't need fallout shelters after all, and freeze-dried food, a staple fallout shelter cuisine, didn't catch on except, perhaps, with backpackers. only pundit who turned out to be right was Yogi Berra; the future is indeed tough to predict. Choosing Winners Given our poor track record, we probably should give up trying to predict which specific technologies will be important 10 to 20 years from now. But from general trends, and in the case of certain inventions, we can extrapolate and, if we are careful, draw reasonably accurate determinations about the direction technology is taking and the consequences for our economy. For example, portable, battery-powered, tube-type radios were already popular by the 1930s. It did not require a wild leap of imagination to predict that the invention of a tube replacement - the transistor - would lead to transistorized portable radios. When they were first introduced in 1947, transistors, being virtually hand made, were expensive. But transistors were easily mass producible on a scale that would surely lower costs, and transistors offered several advantages over tubes. …" @default.
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• W89302586 date "1998-12-22" @default.
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• W89302586 title "Rural America's information age: the economic future of rural communities depends on their ability to take advantage of emerging telecommunications technologies" @default.
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