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• W90901661 abstract "Last year, when the events of Sept. 11 were still a fresh memory and the economy had only finally resolved to wallow into recession, we characterized the consensus among community bankers polled with the headline Into the A year later, in answering the fifth-annual ABA Community Bankers Council/ABA Banking Journal Community Bank Yearend Credit Survey, bankers separated themselves into three camps: 1. Those who believe their local economies are sliding deeper into the economic trough. We're seeing a delayed economic reaction to 9/11 issues, answers a Kansas banker. fact, this is the weakest we have seen things since the mid-1980s. Things are steady right now, answers a Colorado banker, I'm concerned about the second quarter of 2003--and beyond. Many bankers in this camp used the word stagnant to describe their markets. 2. Those who hope to ride it out without much damage, in some cases because of local recession-proof economies. We are in a holding pattern, writes a Massachusetts banker. Our local economy has slowed down but we are holding at the current level, with little or no growth. 3. Those who already see signs that their local economies are climbing back out of the trough. Things are good, says a West Virginian. Our area is diversified. New manufacturing and technology jobs have been coming to the area. Unemployment is stable, equal to the national average. These reports aren't a matter of right or wrong. Community banks live in two economies, the national one we are all subject to, to some degree, and the local one that may defy the national trend, for the good--or for the bad. Thus it wasn't unusual, for instance, for bankers from the same state to come down on opposite sides of the question of how their local economy was doing. (The Voices sections that appear throughout this report illustrate the breadth and variety of responses.) year, 66 current and former members of the Community Bankers Council answered our poll in mid-October. VOICES/General business conditions Where it's rough Ore.: Poor and not likely to improve for some time. Miss.: Stagnant, declining. Tenn.: Fair, but fragile. Iowa: We've seen numerous plant closings in late 2000, in all of 2001, and now in 2002 as well. Consolidation of a variety of mature industries caused us to have the highest unemployment in the state and in our tri-state region. Utah: most of our area I see an economic downturn. A deterioration has already started. Ill.: This is a difficult economy due to a 30% or more drop in manufacturing activity in the Midwest. In this poll, we also asked them to report where they expected 2002 earnings to finish and how they thought 2003 might look. As shown in Exhibit 1, in spite of the many pessimistic and worded forecasts for their economies, three out of four banks expect earnings to improve in 2002 and a similar percentage expects 2003 earnings to be up. Debt levels, as rated by the bankers, varied, as can be seen in Exhibit 2. Business indebtedness was considered mostly normal-virtually, the same as in last year's survey. On the other hand, a higher percentage of consumer debt levels was placed higher in the very and high categories this year, compared to last year's survey. Some bankers expressed particular concerns about this. A Texan reported, for example, that Consumers are having difficulties finding employment and meeting their obligations. Debt levels are growing and bankruptcy filings are increasing. Our local economy continues to be strong, but consumer bankruptcies are up, says a Pennsylvanian. banker also noted that post-9/11 jitters have caused an influx of New Yorkers who have decided to move further away from New York City and helped his real-estate portfolio, but not his consumer borrowers. …" @default.
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• W90901661 date "2002-12-01" @default.
• W90901661 modified "2023-09-23" @default.
• W90901661 title "Three Views, One Economy: Depending on Your Region and Your Local Business Mix, Things Range from Wonderful to Worrisome to Woeful. (Community Banking: Annual Credit & Outlook Survey)" @default.
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