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- W93354448 abstract "Prediction of future climates on Earth uses, among other things, methods of paleoclimatic analogy. In order to outline possible regional patterns due to future climatic changes, paleoclimatic data from past eras were employed by Budyko and collaborators. Their method of paleoclimatic analogy is based on estimation of the temperature sensitivity of carbon dioxide (C02), the principal trace gas of climatic relevance. Changes in C02 that occurred during Earth’s history were compared with subsequent changes in the mean temperatures. For paleoclimatic analysis, climatic conditions of periods like the Pliocene, Miocene, Paleocene-Eocene and the Cretaceous were studied, and their mean temperatures were determined in relation to current conditions. Changes in mean temperatures due to differences in the solar radiation (a 5% increase in the solar constant every 109 years) or due to differences in the Earth’s reflectivity caused by changes in the distribution or proportion of continental/ oceanic surfaces (a 1% reduction of the albedo is estimated to correspond to an increase in mean surface temperatures by 2 °C) were taken into account, and the residual temperature changes were therefore related to C02 concentration changes according to a carbon-circulation model. As a result of this approach, a temperature sensitivity of 3±1 °C due to C02 doubling was determined. In a second Step, the middle Holocene, the Eemian interglacial period and the Pliocene were used as analogies of future climates. Mean annual precipitation and temperature, in addition to January and July temperature means, were reconstructed on a regional scale. These reconstructions resulted, for instance, in approximate temperature differences of +1°C (Holocene-Atlantic), +2°C (Eemian) and +3-4°C (Pliocene), compared with the present-day Situation. The chosen periods were taken as analogies for future climates, given the corresponding greenhouse-gas concentrations (Budyko and Izrael 1987; IPCC 1990).KeywordsTree SpeciesForest AreaCritical LoadClimate WarmingFuture ChangeThese keywords were added by machine and not by the authors. This process is experimental and the keywords may be updated as the learning algorithm improves." @default.
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- W93354448 date "2001-01-01" @default.
- W93354448 modified "2023-09-27" @default.
- W93354448 title "Scenarios of Future Changes" @default.
- W93354448 doi "https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-642-59531-8_7" @default.
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