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- W991574123 abstract "An evident tendency of a modern economic world is synchronization of business cycles in different countries. Comovements of economic activities around the national economies can be caused by economic shocks, common for all the countries, by global spillovers of disturbances in one of the big economies and also by correlated shocks in separate countries. Dynamics of macroeconomic aggregates in an open national economy also is influenced by some regional factors, which cover common elements of cyclical fluctuations in the countries of a certain region, and by country-specific factors, common for the macroeconomic variables of an individual country. According to the World Economic Outlook, made by the International Monetary Fund, common global disturbances have explained international economic fluctuations in a lesser extent since the mid 1980s. Increasing importance of regional factors is being observed in the regions, where intra-regional trade and financial links enhance. A number of scientists nowadays pay attention to the research of a degree of synchronization of business cycles in the new members of the European Union (EU) and the euro zone. This question is especially important in terms of these countries’ intention to join the European Monetary Union (EMU) in the nearest future. In that case they will lose their independent monetary policy and therefore opportunity to react on their own to specific economic conditions. Theory of the optimal currency area stresses on the importance of business cycle synchronization for the members of a monetary union. In fact the higher is the correlation of business cycles, the lesser is probability of asymmetric shocks, and more easy is to make common stabilizing interventions. Stabilization costs of refusing a national monetary policy for the accession country are lesser in that case. If a business cycle in a national economy is not synchronized with the euro area business cycle because of asymmetric shocks or differences in extending common shocks, common monetary policy can be harmful for the economy." @default.
- W991574123 created "2016-06-24" @default.
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- W991574123 date "2009-01-01" @default.
- W991574123 modified "2023-09-27" @default.
- W991574123 title "A problem of business cycle synchronization in the new European Union member states and the euro zone" @default.
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